NZD/USD: Hot US CPI to pummel the kiwi – ANZ

The kiwi is at 2022 lows as the USD extended its winning streak ahead of key US CPI data this week. Stronger-than-expected inflation would lift the greenback, economists at ANZ Bank report.

The reality of volatility bites

“It is hard to anticipate any let-up in generalised volatility given this week’s data schedule, with US CPI topping the list, and NZ inflation expectations data also due. Risks around US CPI feel binary; a moderation from 8.5% (to 8.1% as markets expect) would be mildly comforting, but a lift would doubtless revive expectations for 75bp Fed hikes, and probably give the USD a boost.” 

“The idea that synchronised global tightening might proceed gently now feels like a forgotten dream as the reality of volatility bites.”

“Support 0.5940/0.6230 Resistance 0.6465/0.6545/0.6700”