When is the Australia unemployment rate and how could it affect AUD/USD?

November month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as the pair trades near multi-day high, eases off-late, amid the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus talks and the Sino-American tussles.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to drop to 50.0K from 178.8K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 7.0%. Further, the Participation Rate may rise a bit from 65.8% to 66.0% during the stated period.

Westpac expects the data to point to economic slowdown while saying,

Australia’s November ABS labor force survey. Westpac anticipates that 75k jobs were created (market estimate is 40k), after the much stronger than expected 179k surge in October. We are looking for Victoria to drive the participation rate higher, so our 75k forecast gain in employment will only be enough to hold unemployment flat at 7.0% (consensus also 7.0%, unchanged from October).

TD Securities also follow the suit as they said,

TD is forecasting headline employment to have increased +50k, above consensus even after the strong Oct outcome, which at face value appeared to be too good to be true. We anticipate a pick up in the participation rate to 66% as confidence grows (Consumer Sentiment hit a 10yr high) that Covid is under control and vaccine news lifts hopes for ongoing recovery.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

While short-term sellers are looking for an opportunity in today’s Aussie employment data, any upside surprise will be taken with a pinch of salt unless the market hears more about the US aid package. Also, the recently talked Aussie-China and the Sin-American tensions are expected to exert extra pressure on AUD/USD if the data marks downbeat performance in November.

However, the Aussie government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) may recall the bulls with likely upward revision to the economic outcome. Concerning this, Westpac said, “The government currently expects the budget deficit to peak at $213.7bn in 2020/21, up from $85bn in 2019/20, then moderate to $112bn in 2021/22, $88bn in 2022/23 and $67bn in 2023/24. MYEFO will see an upgrade of the economic forecasts with upside surprises in activity; commodity prices (iron ore is at US $150/t spot vs the $55/t fob Budget assumption); and the labor market (reducing the cost of the JobSeeker program).”

Technically, an ascending trend line from January 2019, currently around 0.7580, tests the AUD/USD bulls. However, any downside above an ascending trend line from November 02 may not convince the bears.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Fades upside momentum below 0.7600, eyes on Aussie employment

Australian Employment Preview: Positive surprise despite tepid forecasts

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian employment data could push it to fresh 2020 highs

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).