EUR/JPY erodes the five-month uptrend at 123.64 to target the 122.38 September low – Commerzbank

EUR/JPY has eroded the five-month uptrend at 123.64 and was last seen trading at 122.70, down -0.38% on the day. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the fall to extend towards the September low of 122.38 and then the 200-DMA at 121.15.

Key quotes

“EUR/JPY has eroded the five-month uptrend and has recently been rejected by the 200-week ma at 125.22 and the outlook is increasingly negative.” 

“We look for losses to 122.38, the September low and then the 200-day ma at 121.15. The 55-week is here also at 121.12.” 

“Only a break above Fibonacci resistance at 125.29 would initiate a rechallenge of the 2014-2020 resistance line at 126.93, which is expected to cap.”