Australian Employment Preview: Aussie’s long-term bullish trend to approach 0.75 on upbeat report

Australia will publish this Thursday its August employment data at  01:30 GMT. The country is expected to have lost 50K job positions in August. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair is trading near this year high ahead of the event and could near the 0.75 mark on an upbeat report whereas dismal figures may have a limited effect, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik briefs.

Key quotes

“The market expects to see 50K jobs were lost in the month, while the unemployment rate is foreseen at 7.7% from 7.5% in July. This last, however, remains well below the 10% forecasted by the RBA by the year-end.”

“The latest coronavirus outbreak seems to be under control in Australia. The country didn’t report new deaths on Tuesday, and encouraging signs as authorities ponder chances of reopening the economy. The damage, however, is done. The market is not only anticipating negative numbers in September but will also expect similar figures in September. Reopening plans for the Victoria region, extend well into November, and that if there are no new outbreaks.”

“Should the report beat expectations, particularly with upbeat full-time new jobs, AUD/USD could surge beyond 0.7413 and approach the 0.7500 figure. After the dust settles, speculative interest could take profits out of the table if the prices nears this last, but will likely find a new comfort zone above 0.7400.”

“The outcome of the employment report needs to be much worse than anticipated to trigger a sustainable bearish rally. As long as the aussie holds above 0.7191, however, bulls will maintain control.”