US retail sales preview: The headline could be somewhat of a setback - Scotiabank

The Scotiabank analysts offer a detailed preview of the upcoming April month US retail sales data due later on Wednesday at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“At least the headline could be somewhat of a setback.

The volume of vehicle sales fell -6.3% m/m in April. Vehicle prices were soft as new vehicle prices were up by only 0.1% m/m but used vehicle prices fell by 1.3%. Vehicles carry a 20% weight and so this will be a significant drag on total retail sales.

Gas prices were up 10.3% m/m with an 8.4% weight and so this should offset some of the effect of the vehicles assuming the volume of gasoline purchases is little changed. 

Also, recall that core sales ex-autos and gas were quite strong in March and so there might be moderation in April. What may well offset this moderation argument is momentum driven by solid jobs and pent-up demand. 

+0.1% for headline sales and 0.5% for sales ex-autos.”