US election: By what time can be all done and dusted?

As the first results in the US election approach, it is worth reminding our audience what states will matter the most.

In no order of relevance, as the Financial Times reports, the states are "Arizona (11 electoral college votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Virginia (13)."

Ahead of getting the early poll results, the market, as it was the case with Brexit day on July 24th, has been pricing in what a Clinton win, judging by the surge in the S&P 500, the fall in Gold, AUD/USD reaching levels near 0.78 and US 30-year Treauries being sold-off.

Watch key battlegrounds early in Asia

One of the key battlegrounds such as Florida and Ohio will give market participants an early and perhaps conclusive idea of how likely it is that Clinton does indeed win. If Trump fails to win in Florida and Ohio, his chances of winning would be pretty much over. As the FT notes, "one key could be the size of the turnout of Latino voters in Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which have large Hispanic populations. Another could be whether African-American voters go to the polls at a high rate in North Carolina and Ohio."

Traders should expect wild swings between 7pm EST and 7:30pm EST (00 and 00.30 GMT) as polls close in Florida (29) and Virginia (13), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3), followed by Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and West Virginia (5) 30 minutes later.

Done and dusted by 1 GMT?

By 8pm EST (1 GMT), time when all could be done and dusted for Clinton, which implies the most aggressive ''risk-on' swings would be behind us, polls close in other crucial states of Pennsylvania (20) Michigan (16), and in Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Kansas (6), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), New Jersey (14), Oklahoma (7), Rhode Island (4) and Tennessee (11).  

Note, on the assumption that Truump did well and kept his chances between 7 and 7.30pm EST, if Clinton fails to in Pennsylvani, that would be a major disappointment for markets as the prospects of Trump winning will increase significantly. 

By 9pm EST, Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10), Texas (38), Louisiana (8), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), New York (29), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (10) are next. As the night progresses, by 10pm EST polls close in western states Arizona (11), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Nevada (6), Utah (6), Iowa (6), followed by California (55), Washington state (12), Oregon (7) and North Dakota (3) at 11pm EST. Lastly, at 1am EST, Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4).