USD/JPY inter-market: Yen to remain in demand as VIX resumes upside

The minor-recovery in the USD/JPY pair from more-than two-year lows met fresh supply once again near monthly 50-SMA at 104.35, sending the prices once again towards 103.50 levels.

Earlier on the day, the dollar-yen pair witnessed a massive sell-off of over 200-pips after the BOJ decided to leave its monetary policy settings unadjusted this month, which triggered a renewed risk-aversion wave across the financial markets. Hence, the VIX index (S&P VIX futures), risk barometer, extended its recent upward rally, and in part fuelled the selling spiral in USD/JPY.

While the Fed fund rate hike expectations, as revealed by CME Group's Fed Fund futures, remained almost flattish almost through the USD/JPY sell-off. The last leg of the decline in the major seen during the European open can be attributed to the bounce in the yield spread between the US and Japanese 10-year bonds, suggesting that the yield differential tilted in favour of the Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, increased worries over the Brexit issue continue to weigh on the investors’ sentiment and keep the VIX underpinned. Hence, the yen is expected to remain in demand as we gradually head towards the EU referendum next week. Therefore, traders should keep a close eye on the volatility gauge for further moves on USD/JPY.