8 Nov 2013
GBP/USD dumps on NFP’s data
FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has dumped with the dollar higher cross the board on the release of Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) surprised to the upside at 204K vs the 125k consensus.
At the same time the Unemployment Rate was in line with consensus for Oct at 7.3%, Personal Income month on month was up for (Sep) at 0.5% vs 0.3% consensus and Core PCE year on year marginally down at 1.2% vs 1.3% consensus. A research team at RBS said, “Markets will now turn to The UK unemployment rate that takes centre stage in the coming week: the latest data (we forecast a fall to 7.6%) and the November Inflation Report forecast revisions (where we expect the MPC to bring forward, by around two quarters to Q1 2016, the point where the 7% threshold is reached). The BoE will presumably want to guard against any overly 'hawkish' market reaction, so we would expect these revised forecasts to be accompanied by some dovish, cautious rhetoric. CPI inflation is forecast to fall in October, partly on the back of lower petrol prices, but these declines will be short-lived as hefty utility price hikes add up to 0.4pp to CPI inflation in subsequent months”.
GBP/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.6075, the 50 DMA is 1.5981 and the 200 DMA is 1.5491. RSI (14) reads 50.66. Supports are ascending from 1.5949, 1.5980 and 1.6010. Spot is currently 1.6020 while resistances are 1.6043, 1.6097, 1.6118, 1.6150, 1.6174 and 1.6207.
At the same time the Unemployment Rate was in line with consensus for Oct at 7.3%, Personal Income month on month was up for (Sep) at 0.5% vs 0.3% consensus and Core PCE year on year marginally down at 1.2% vs 1.3% consensus. A research team at RBS said, “Markets will now turn to The UK unemployment rate that takes centre stage in the coming week: the latest data (we forecast a fall to 7.6%) and the November Inflation Report forecast revisions (where we expect the MPC to bring forward, by around two quarters to Q1 2016, the point where the 7% threshold is reached). The BoE will presumably want to guard against any overly 'hawkish' market reaction, so we would expect these revised forecasts to be accompanied by some dovish, cautious rhetoric. CPI inflation is forecast to fall in October, partly on the back of lower petrol prices, but these declines will be short-lived as hefty utility price hikes add up to 0.4pp to CPI inflation in subsequent months”.
GBP/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.6075, the 50 DMA is 1.5981 and the 200 DMA is 1.5491. RSI (14) reads 50.66. Supports are ascending from 1.5949, 1.5980 and 1.6010. Spot is currently 1.6020 while resistances are 1.6043, 1.6097, 1.6118, 1.6150, 1.6174 and 1.6207.