28 Jul 2015
EUR/USD forecast: focus on risk trends – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD keeps consolidating below the 1.1100 handle ahead of the opening bell in Europe. No data today in the region will shift the attention to the US docket and the risk appetite mood.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has eroded the short term downtrend and in doing so suggests gains near term towards the 1.1200/16 10th July high. There is scope for 1.1340 but we again look for the market to fail at the top of the range at 1.1440/60. It is range bound approximately 1.08-1.15, and the longer term outlook remains negative”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng added “Technical discussions between Greece and the troika are scheduled to commence today with potential for headline risks while the pair also garnered marginal support from the better than expected German July IFO (108.0). Beyond the near term, note that the IMF has also warned that the ECB’s QE may have to extend beyond September 2016. In the interim, EUR-USD may stall into the 55-day MA (1.1125) with key support not expected till the 1.1000 neighborhood”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has eroded the short term downtrend and in doing so suggests gains near term towards the 1.1200/16 10th July high. There is scope for 1.1340 but we again look for the market to fail at the top of the range at 1.1440/60. It is range bound approximately 1.08-1.15, and the longer term outlook remains negative”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng added “Technical discussions between Greece and the troika are scheduled to commence today with potential for headline risks while the pair also garnered marginal support from the better than expected German July IFO (108.0). Beyond the near term, note that the IMF has also warned that the ECB’s QE may have to extend beyond September 2016. In the interim, EUR-USD may stall into the 55-day MA (1.1125) with key support not expected till the 1.1000 neighborhood”.